The major upheaval is the announcement of the departure of founder couple Uğur Şahin and Özlem Türeci, who are leaving the company they founded eighteen years ago. Their exit is, of course, fueling rumors of tensions between them and their shareholders, led by the still highly discreet Strüngmann brothers.
The Covid windfall has long since dried up for BioNTech. Nevertheless, unlike its American rival Moderna, the German group has kept its war chest to invest very ambitiously in the future, specifically in oncology, where it has since built a very robust pipeline.
Meanwhile, Moderna, by aggressively buying back its shares when they were valued at a peak, presided over an epic destruction of value.
Two years ago, in a previous BioNTech earnings commentary, we noted that, after stripping out its impressive €18bn cash pile, its market capitalization at the time assigned only a modest €3bn value to the pipeline - barely two years of capitalized R&D.
Which is to say investor expectations were low. They anticipated - rightly - an operating loss that would widen further in 2024 and 2025, and which should in fact worsen again in 2026, given the string of clinical trials.
However, thanks to massive liquidations of vaccine inventories, as well as the signing of a strategic partnership with Bristol Myers Squibb to develop an alternative to the oncology blockbuster Keytruda, cash remains largely intact, with €17bn in cash and equivalents at the end of 2025.
So it is a strong management performance for BioNTech, which is expecting six late-stage clinical readouts this year. It is not enough, however, to impress investors - as yesterday's share drop shows - likely stunned by the announcement of the departure of the legendary founder couple.
In valuation terms, the group now commands a market capitalization of $21bn, or €18bn. In other words, investors value the group's pipeline at roughly €1bn.
BioNTech needs a positive surprise on the clinical-trials front in 2026 to restore confidence. In the immediate term, a first priority is the appointment of an experienced chief executive to succeed the legendary founder couple and ensure strong execution across the many ongoing R&D programs.
