After a couple slower sessions, U.S. stocks moved higher again, still powered by the AI trade. One stat says it all: the semiconductor ETF has finished green in 22 of the last 25 trading days. Its 60% gain this year massively outpaces the S&P 500 (+6%) and the MSCI World Index (+5.5%). Money keeps flooding into anything tied to computing power and AI infrastructure. At this point, even weaker or previously overlooked chip companies are getting swept up in the rally. Betting against semis right now feels like standing in front of a freight train.

And honestly, the excitement is not completely irrational. Once you move past AI memes and chatbot gimmicks, it becomes clear that something much bigger is happening. The market is simply pricing that in. Strategist Ed Yardeni recently argued that economists may now need a fourth factor of production alongside land, labor, and capital: data. AI is finally making massive amounts of data useful and economically valuable at scale, and that shift is already showing up in spending trends. Tech investment now represents roughly 55% of total U.S. business investment as a share of nominal GDP in early 2026, a huge structural change from previous decades.

Of course, investors would still like clearer proof that all this spending will generate lasting economic returns. But until then, the market is sticking with the obvious winners and avoiding the obvious losers. Right now the story is simple: AI-linked stocks are up 60%, while the broader market is up around 6%. For many investors, that’s enough reason to stay heavily positioned in the trade. The AI narrative also remains fully intact: Samsung crossed the $1 trillion valuation mark thanks to its role in the AI supply chain, while AMD jumped 17% after earnings reinforced expectations that AI demand is still accelerating.

Outside of tech, geopolitics continues to drive headlines. Tensions in the Middle East keep swinging between escalation and de-escalation, and oil prices are moving with every update. Markets are increasingly betting that the U.S. and Iran eventually reach some type of agreement involving the Strait of Hormuz, even if nothing is finalized yet. Investors also know markets historically move past geopolitical conflicts fairly quickly unless energy prices spike hard enough to hit the global economy. For now, crude oil remains in a range investors still see as manageable.

Attention is also turning toward next week’s meeting in Beijing between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, where discussions are expected to include Iran and Taiwan. Earnings season stays busy as well. Europe is reporting results from companies including Novo Nordisk, BMW, Diageo, and Infineon, while U.S. investors are watching updates from ARM, Walt Disney, AppLovin, and Marriott.

In Asia, South Korea jumped 6% overnight, led by Samsung and SK Hynix. Hong Kong, Australia, and India also traded higher, while European markets are expected to open positive.

Today's economic highlights:

Today’s agenda includes in the United States the MBA mortgage applications, purchase index, mortgage market index, refinance index, and the MBA 30-year mortgage rate; the ADP employment change report; the Treasury refunding announcement; speeches from Fed officials Musalem, Goolsbee, and Hammack; as well as EIA data on crude oil stocks, gasoline stocks, distillate stocks, refinery crude runs, crude oil imports, gasoline production, and heating oil stocks. In Canada, investors will watch the Ivey PMI, while in Australia attention turns to the balance of trade data.

  • Dollar index: 97.73
  • Gold: $4,683
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $102.2 (WTI) $94.61
  • United States 10 years: 4.35%
  • BITCOIN: $82,330

In corporate news:

  • Abercrombie & Fitch - Barclays downgrades the stock to Underweight from Equal Weight.
  • AMD - AMD forecasted second-quarter revenue above Wall Street expectations, driven by strong demand for AI data center chips. Bernstein also upgraded the stock to Outperform, citing growing opportunities in agentic AI. Shares are up 18% premarket, lifting other semiconductor names including Alphabet, Arm Holdings, Intel, Nvidia, and Super Micro.
  • American Eagle Outfitters - Barclays upgrades the stock to Equal Weight from Underweight.
  • Apollo Global - Assets under management surpassed $1 trillion, helping drive record fee-related revenue in the first quarter. Shares rise 2.2% premarket.
  • Blue Owl Capital - Bloomberg reports that Stack Infrastructure, backed by Blue Owl, is exploring options including a potential sale of its Asian operations in a deal valued above $30 billion.
  • Coty - The CoverGirl parent reaffirmed its annual profit guidance above analyst expectations, although it warned that Middle East tensions are weighing on sales. Shares fall nearly 2% premarket.
  • CVS Health - The company raised its full-year outlook after stronger quarterly profits in its pharmacy benefit management business and tighter control of medical costs. Shares gain 4% premarket.
  • Kraft Heinz - First-quarter revenue beat expectations, supported by stronger U.S. demand and early benefits from the new CEO’s strategy. Shares rise 3% premarket.
  • Lucid Group - The EV maker suspended full-year guidance after supplier issues disrupted deliveries of its Gravity SUV, leading to weaker first-quarter sales. Shares drop more than 8% premarket.
  • Marriott - The hotel operator raised its 2026 RevPAR growth outlook, betting on continued strong travel demand in the United States. Shares rise 1.6% premarket.
  • Match Group - First-quarter revenue topped expectations, helped by strong performance at Hinge and AI-driven features at Tinder.
  • Oil sector - Oil prices are sharply lower after reports that the United States and Iran are moving closer to an agreement to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude falls 9.4% while WTI drops 10.3%.
  • Tesla - The company is recalling more than 218,000 vehicles in the United States over a rearview camera display issue. Separately, SpaceX and Tesla reportedly proposed investing $55 billion in a semiconductor plant in Texas called “Terafab.”
  • Uber - The company forecasted second-quarter revenue above estimates, driven by strong demand for ride-sharing and delivery services despite Middle East-related headwinds. Shares jump about 6% premarket.
  • Walt Disney - Quarterly earnings beat expectations thanks to stronger streaming and theme park revenue. CEO Josh D’Amaro also said growth should accelerate in the second half of the year. Shares climb more than 6% premarket.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • AMD: Mizuho Securities maintains its Outperform rating and raises the price target from $280 to $415.
  • Arista Networks: UBS maintains its Buy rating and raises the price target from $177 to $187.
  • Credit Acceptance Corporation: TD Cowen maintains its Hold rating and raises the price target from $450 to $500.
  • GlobalFoundries: Baird maintains its Outperform rating and raises the price target from $60 to $100.
  • Healthpeak Properties: Evercore ISI maintains its Outperform rating and raises the price target from $20 to $22.
  • Henry Schein: UBS maintains its Neutral rating and lowers the price target from $87 to $85.
  • KKR: RBC Capital maintains its Outperform rating and lowers the price target from $132 to $128.
  • Match Group: RBC Capital maintains its Outperform rating and raises the price target from $37 to $42.
  • Onto Innovation: Jefferies maintains its Buy rating and raises the price target from $325 to $350.
  • PayPal Holdings: UBS maintains its Neutral rating and raises the price target from $44 to $48.
  • Skyworks Solutions: Stifel maintains its Hold rating and raises the price target from $65 to $75.
  • Solventum Corporation: Jefferies maintains its Hold rating and lowers the price target from $84 to $79.
  • Talen Energy Corporation: Wells Fargo maintains its Overweight rating and raises the price target from $465 to $477.
  • TransDigm Group: RBC Capital maintains its Sector Perform rating and lowers the price target from $1,400 to $1,350.
  • Waters Corporation: UBS maintains its Neutral rating and raises the price target from $330 to $375.