It is often a good idea to put things into context. It is useful to remember that the US president has believed that the dollar has been too high for too long, due to the imbalance between the US and its trading partners. For related reasons linked to the financing of US debt, interest rates are also considered to be abnormally high. The implementation of reciprocal tariffs therefore has the dual aim of revaluing the greenback (downward) against a backdrop of falling 10-year interest rates. However, the loss of investor confidence has led to a fall in the value of dollar-denominated assets, effectively pushing the greenback down while keeping interest rates high. A few U-turns later and the intervention of a Wall Street veteran in the form of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the pieces of the puzzle seem to be falling back together.

Source: Bloomberg

The S&P rose sharply on Tuesday, while gold fell heavily on high volumes, signaling a potential climax. At the same time, the EURUSD is showing signs of weakness in an important resistance zone to watch between 1.1573 and 1.1680. As you can see in the chart above, the European currency has broken out of a congestion zone that has been in place since 2022. It should be noted that, for the moment, the upward move is almost the same in amplitude as the attempt to break out at the end of last year (307 points). Even if the countercyclical indicators are not diverging, a pause seems entirely possible. We will be watching 1.1276/25, whose reintegration will effectively mark the end of the bullish sequence that has been underway since last January and, consequently, the return of the dollar to the forefront.