The proposal would take the form of a one-page, 14-point memorandum negotiated by Donald Trump's envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, with several Iranian officials, either directly or through intermediaries. While nothing has been finalized, US officials cited by Axios believe that discussions have never been this advanced since the conflict began.

The text reportedly calls for a formal end to the regional war, followed by a 30-day period dedicated to reaching a more detailed agreement. Points under discussion include an Iranian moratorium on uranium enrichment, the duration of which is still being negotiated, a progressive easing of US sanctions, the release of several billion dollars in frozen Iranian funds, and a gradual lifting of restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz. Axios also reports that the parties are discussing an enhanced inspection regime, including snap UN inspections, as well as an Iranian commitment to never seek nuclear weapons.

However, the deal remains fragile. According to Axios, Washington believes that the Iranian leadership remains divided, which could complicate any lasting compromise. Several US officials remain skeptical, especially as the Trump administration has shown optimism during previous negotiation phases without actually achieving results. The current project could therefore lead to a genuine de-escalation, but also to a mere suspension of the conflict: should talks fail, the United States reserves the right to reinstate its naval blockade and resume military operations.

These rumors have sent indices soaring. The Euro STOXX 50 is up over 2.5%. Oil prices are falling back again, with Brent crude down  below $106 per barrel.