LVMH: pressure continues, as Deutsche Bank remains cautious
Published on 19/06/2025 at 17:18
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LVMH posted one of the biggest falls on the CAC 40 index on Thursday morning, as Deutsche Bank analysts believe there is little chance that H1 will bring good news for the luxury goods giant.
At around 11am, the stock was down 2.5%, compared with a decline of around 0.8% for the Paris flagship index: the STOXX Europe 600 Consumer Products index was down around 0.6% at the same time.
In a note released this morning, the broker maintained its "hold" recommendation on the stock, which it has held for a year now, a choice it considers wise given the 35% drop in the share price over the past year and the recent 40% downward revision of consensus earnings forecasts for 2025.
According to analysts, volatility in the global luxury goods market continued in Q2, a trend that LVMH observed in several divisions.
Deutsche Bank, which is lowering its estimates and reducing its target price from €465 to €435, believes that the question now is whether the point of capitulation has been reached.
On this point, the broker says that it will maintain a cautious view on the stock until it sees clear signs of a trend reversal, but also notes that the risk/return ratio is now beginning to tilt more toward the positive side.
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LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE is the world leader in luxury products. Net sales break down by family of products as follows:
- fashion and leather items (48.5%): brands such as Louis Vuitton, Kenzo, Celine, Fendi, Marc Jacobs, Givenchy, etc.;
- watches and jewels (12.5%): Bulgari, TAG Heuer, Zenith, Hublot, Chaumet, Fred brands, Tiffany, etc.;
- perfumes and cosmetics products (9.9%): perfumes (Christian Dior, Guerlain, Loewe, Kenzo brands, etc.), makeup products (Make Up For Ever, Guerlain, Acqua di Parma, etc.), etc.;
- wines and spirits (6.9%): champagnes (Moët & Chandon, Mercier, Veuve Clicquot Ponsardin, Dom Pérignon brands, etc.; No. 1 worldwide), wines (Cape Mentelle, Château D'Yquem, etc.), cognacs (mainly Hennessy; No. 1 worldwide), whisky (mainly Glenmorangie), etc.;
The remaining net sales (22.2%) are from selective distribution through the Sephora, DFS, Miami Cruiseline chains and Le Bon Marché and La Samaritaine department stores.
At the end of 2024, products are marketed via a network of 6,307 outlets located throughout the world.
Net sales are distributed geographically as follows: France (8.3%), Europe (17.2%), Japan (8.8%), Asia (27.5%), the United States (25.4%) and other (12.8%).
