Analysis: Interest Rates

A summer pause for the ECB

The ECB is expected to keep its rates unchanged on Thursday. However, investors are pricing in one or two additional rate hikes over the coming months.

Christopher Waller, the Fed governor to watch

Just a few months ago, Christopher Waller was arguing for rate cuts. Now, he is leaving the door open to tighter monetary policy.

Treasuries Face New Competition

Tech companies have kicked off a big race for capital to finance their pivot to AI.

The Fed is Not Just Another Agency

The Supreme Court handed Donald Trump a victory yesterday. The American president will be able to fire the heads of independent agencies at his discretion. With one notable exception: the Fed.

A Less Transparent Fed: Markets Face a Revolution

For years, the Fed has sought to guide market expectations. Kevin Warsh wants to end that logic.

Fed edges closer to a rate hike

The Fed has a dual mandate, but now faces only one problem: inflation.

ECB: Is a rate hike certain for next week?

The answer is almost. The 25bp hike expected to be made by the European Central Bank on June 11 is the subject of a rare consensus within the Governing Council, even amongst its most dovish members....

ECB poised for action

After a year-long pause, the ECB is expected to raise interest rates at its next meeting on June 11.

Rates keep going up. And the trend may not be over yet

Markets frequently test incoming Fed Chairs.

For the Fed, inflationary risk has regained the upper hand

The question is no longer when to cut rates, but rather whether they must be raised.

Rate hikes set for June

Rhetoric is no longer enough; it's now time for action.

This was not Powell's final meeting, but It was Warsh's first

The regime change has already begun.

Warsh wants change. But will he be able to deliver?

During his Senate hearing, Kevin Warsh was highly critical of the Fed, stating that the institution needs a change of course....

Warsh wants change. But will he be able to deliver?

During his Senate hearing, Kevin Warsh was highly critical of the Fed, stating that the institution requires a change of course....

A new acronym for sovereigns… and it's one you want to avoid

The BIFs have succeeded the PIIGS.

Iran Truce Triggers Sharp Pullback in Yields

However, a return to pre-conflict levels remains unlikely.

Rate Hikes Have Already Occurred

The conflict in Iran has reignited bets on central bank rate hikes. However, the market has already done the heavy lifting.

Rates: A pivot that fails to convince

Central banks have adopted a more hawkish tone, and markets have received the message loud and clear-perhaps even overreacting in the process.

The Fed and the transitory shock dilemma

As a general rule, economists believe that central banks should look through surges in energy prices. However, ignoring a transitory shock is far more difficult when inflation has remained above...