Projected Income Statement: Supalai

Forecast Balance Sheet: Supalai

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 18,264 - 22,453 29,064 34,200 32,352 32,524 32,848
Change - - - 29.44% 17.67% -5.4% 0.53% 1%
Announcement Date 22/2/22 21/2/23 20/2/24 25/2/25 25/2/26 - - -
1THB in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Supalai

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 83.27 79.23 243 141.4 186 303.9 247.4
Change - - 206.67% -41.8% 31.54% 63.37% -18.58%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 3,926 -258.7 -930.2 711.7 5,820 3,698 4,620
Change - - -259.48% 176.51% 717.88% -36.46% 24.91%
Announcement Date 22/2/22 20/2/24 25/2/25 25/2/26 - - -
1THB in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Supalai

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 28.96% 27.59% 23.69% 24.57% 19.4% 20.88% 21.31% 21.66%
EBIT Margin (%) 28.54% 27.22% 23.25% 23.92% 18.52% 18.66% 19.23% 20.09%
EBT Margin (%) 31.15% 30.49% 24.6% 25.44% 21.23% 21.9% 22.09% 22.88%
Net margin (%) 24.25% 23.7% 19.21% 19.84% 16.64% 17.45% 17.89% 18.51%
FCF margin (%) 13.46% - -0.83% -2.98% 2.95% 22.97% 14.24% 16.88%
FCF / Net Income (%) 55.52% - -4.32% -15.03% 17.72% 131.6% 79.63% 91.2%

Profitability

        
ROA 10.13% - 7.21% 6.79% 4.11% 4.37% 4.59% 4.96%
ROE 17.98% - 12.35% 11.94% 7.51% 7.9% 7.96% 8.47%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 2.16x - 3.04x 3.79x 7.31x 6.11x 5.88x 5.54x
Debt / Free cash flow 4.65x - -86.78x -31.25x 48.06x 5.56x 8.79x 7.11x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 0.29% - 0.25% 0.78% 0.59% 0.73% 1.17% 0.9%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 0.99% - 1.07% 3.17% 3.02% 3.52% 5.49% 4.17%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 2.12% - -30.62% -26.12% 19.87% 3.2% 8.22% 5.36%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 2.058 - -0.092 -0.3518 0.4447 2.09 2.415 2.593
Change - - - -282.39% 226.41% 369.98% 15.55% 7.38%
Dividend per Share 1 1 - 1.45 1.35 1.4 1.274 1.29 1.376
Change - - - -6.9% 3.7% -8.98% 1.21% 6.72%
Book Value Per Share 1 21.59 - 25.84 27.23 28.48 29.19 30.48 31.65
Change - - - 5.35% 4.61% 2.5% 4.42% 3.81%
EPS 1 3.63 4.19 3.07 3.17 2.09 2.272 2.388 2.617
Change - 15.43% -26.73% 3.26% -34.07% 8.7% 5.11% 9.6%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 1,948,141 1,953,054 1,953,054 1,953,054 1,886,454 1,899,871 1,899,871 1,899,871
Announcement Date 22/2/22 21/2/23 20/2/24 25/2/25 25/2/26 - - -
1THB
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 7.04x 6.7x
PBR 0.55x 0.52x
EV / Sales 2.48x 2.42x
Yield 7.96% 8.06%

EPS & Dividend



Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

 

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
BBB
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
15
Last Close Price
16.00THB
Average target price
17.65THB
Spread / Average Target
+10.29%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

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