Chip stocks are already trying to steady themselves this morning. Nvidia rose in premarket trading, and the broader semiconductor group followed. Marvell, Intel, Micron and the iShares Semiconductor ETF all moved higher. Analog Devices also gained after announcing a $1.5 billion cash deal to buy Empower Semiconductor, a company that should strengthen its position in AI-related power management.

Investors are closely watching any signs that could derail the AI boom narrative. Their confidence has been slightly shaken by Leopold Aschenbrenner, who's hedge fund, Situational Awareness, is taking a sharply bearish stance on many of the market’s biggest AI-chip winners, according to its latest 13F filing, with large put-option positions against Nvidia, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF, Broadcom, Oracle, AMD, TSMC, ASML and Intel. The bets suggest the former OpenAI researcher, known for his 2024 AI outlook paper also called Situational Awareness, sees downside risk in the most crowded parts of the AI trade, even as his fund remains selective rather than broadly anti-AI. It also holds bullish call positions in names such as SanDisk, CoreWeave, CleanSpark and Bloom Energy, pointing to a preference for other parts of the AI infrastructure ecosystem. The disclosure is adding to debate over whether enthusiasm around AI stocks has run too far.

The 10-year Treasury yield eased slightly today, hovering around 4.64% to 4.65%, after touching a 16-month high in the previous session. That helped stock futures move higher. The 30-year yield, however, recently reached about 5.20%, a level last seen in 2007. Investors do not need to be reminded what came after 2007... However, higher yields do not automatically kill stock rallies. Sometimes they reflect a strong economy and sometimes they simply offer investors a better return elsewhere. But this bond-market move is worrying because of what it suggests: inflation may not be finished, government debt is becoming more expensive, and the Federal Reserve may have less room to cut rates than investors had hoped. The Fed minutes due later today will matter because investors want to know how policymakers are thinking about balance-sheet operations and inflation risk.

Inflation is already close to a danger zone for stocks. Consumer prices accelerated to 3.8% in April. Bank of America has noted that when U.S. inflation rises above 4%, the S&P 500 has historically struggled over the following months. That does not guarantee another selloff, but it does explain why investors are nervous.

Brent crude has been trading around $110 a barrel, even after falling today. Investors took some comfort from signs that tankers had crossed the Strait of Hormuz and from Trump's suggestion that the war with Iran could end very quickly. But he also warned that U.S. strikes could resume. Washington wants Tehran to accept a deal, but Tehran may believe time is on its side, or at least useful as a bargaining tool.

At the same time, the dollar is strengthening. The global bond selloff has made U.S. yields more attractive, and that has pulled money into the greenback. ING argues that this episode is different from 2025 because inflation fears, not fiscal fears, are driving the move.

In corporate news, Cava raised its full-year guidance after strong sales growth. Red Robin rose after reporting better-than-feared results. Mayville Engineering and Viavi Solutions fell after announcing stock offerings to repay debt. Target also reports today. SpaceX's IPO paperwork could reportedly become public this afternoon if plans hold. In another market, that might have been the big story. Today it is competing with Nvidia, oil tankers, and the Fed minutes. Tough room.

To end this column, I will mention Trump's latest legal drama. He settled a lawsuit against his own administration by creating a $1.776 billion fund for alleged victims of "weaponization." This means people who claim the federal government targeted them for political reasons, especially under the Biden administration, which likely includes Jan. 6 rioters, but also Trump's friends and family. According to press reports, it not only creates a politically managed payout pool for Trump-aligned claimants, but also protects Trump, his family and his businesses from IRS scrutiny over past tax filings.

Today's economic highlights:

See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 99,285
  • Gold: $4,487
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $108.85 (WTI) $101.95
  • United States 10 years: 4.64%
  • BITCOIN: $77,381

In corporate news:

  • Pfizer advanced its pediatric pneumococcal vaccine program to Phase 3 after Phase 2 data showed stronger immune responses than Prevnar 20 and no identified safety concerns.
  • CrowdStrike partnered with SVA to offer Falcon-based cybersecurity services to public-sector and enterprise customers in Germany.
  • United Rentals made its Equipment Agent available in ChatGPT, saying customers are already using it for equipment specifications and rental queries.
  • Boeing secured a Chinese commitment to buy 200 aircraft, engines and spare parts amid improving U.S.-China trade relations.
  • Viavi Solutions priced a $500 million share offering and plans to use the proceeds mainly to repay its $450 million Term Loan B.
  • Affirm expanded its partnership with Royal Caribbean to the UK and Canada, enabling approved cruise customers to pay in fixed installments.
  • Amkor Technology acquired an additional 67-acre parcel next to its Arizona semiconductor campus to expand U.S. advanced packaging and testing operations.
  • Nikkon Holdings is reportedly considering going private, with private equity firms including Bain Capital, Warburg Pincus and Blackstone expected to bid.
  • General Motors will begin assembling Chevrolet Groove and Aveo models in Mexico from 2027 as part of a previously announced $1 billion investment.
  • Visa launched its Agentic Ready program in the United Arab Emirates to support AI-driven commerce.
  • Alphabet's Google DeepMind reportedly reached a licensing and hiring agreement with Contextual AI, bringing in more than 20 researchers.
  • Google unveils its smart glasses, set to launch this fall, and its AI agent Spark.
  • Meta Platforms is opening access to WhatsApp for competing AI chatbots in Europe.
  • Northrop Grumman has secured a $697 million radar maintenance contract for the U.S. Marine Corps.
  • Today's key earnings reports: Nvidia, Analog Devices, The TJX Companies, Lowe's, Progressive Corp, Intuit, Target…

Analyst Recommendations:

  • C.h. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.: Jefferies upgrades to buy from hold and raises the target price from USD 195 to USD 200.
  • Etsy, Inc.: Arete Research upgrades to buy from neutral and raises the target price from USD 60 to USD 76.
  • Jabil Inc.: Zacks downgrades to neutral from outperform and reduces the target price from USD 411 to USD 366.
  • Keysight Technologies, Inc.: Wells Fargo downgrades to outperform from overweight and raises the target price from USD 300 to USD 390. 
  • Packaging Corporation Of America: UBS upgrades to buy from neutral with a price target raised from USD 232 to USD 248.
  • Aramark: Rothschild & Co Redburn maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 48 to USD 61.
  • Crowdstrike Holdings, Inc.: Stifel maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 480 to USD 660.
  • Etsy, Inc.: Arete Research upgrades to buy from neutral and raises the target price from USD 60 to USD 76.
  • Mongodb, Inc.: Baird maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 260 to USD 335.
  • Palo Alto Networks, Inc.: Stifel maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 185 to USD 275.
  • The Home Depot, Inc.: HSBC maintains its hold recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 392 to USD 310.