Yves Sanquer

Currencies: Targets in sight

Is the "Trump effect" starting to seize up? With US small-caps retreating, gold back on support and the dollar approaching resistance levels, it may be time to take stock. Here's a review of the forces at play and the key levels to watch.

November 18, 2024 at 11:08 pm

Rates: This time, we're there

Donald Trump's election to a second term in office has propelled US stock markets to record highs, while pushing bond yields higher. So much so that the 10-year is now at a crossroads.

November 12, 2024 at 06:15 pm

Currencies: The dollar soars with Trump 2.0

Donald Trump's arrival in power only reinforces the dollar's prevailing trend.

November 12, 2024 at 05:56 pm

Rates: Top in sight?

Amidst the persistent inflation that continues to grip the United States, the forthcoming election looms with a cloud of uncertainty, further complicated by a labor market that shows signs of faltering. These factors combine to create a cacophony of economic signals that might typically argue against a reduction in interest rates. Despite this, there's a palpable sense of anticipation in the financial markets as the US 10-year Treasury yield teeters on the brink of what could be a pivotal shift.

November 04, 2024 at 06:10 pm

Currencies: A well-deserved respite

Last week, the euro regained some of its color against the dollar, but the hardest part remains to be done on the eve of a particularly busy week, between the US elections and the US Federal Reserve meeting. It's going to be some sport!

November 04, 2024 at 06:07 pm

Rates: Move with the MOVE

Every stock investor worth his salt knows the index of fear: the VIX. But have you heard of the MOVE, its bond market equivalent? No ? Don't panic, here's a quick refresher.

October 28, 2024 at 10:42 pm

Currency Crossroads: EUR/USD tests support amid market tensions

I can read here and there that the markets are at their wits' end in the face of so much uncertainty: this week's quarterly results from US heavyweights (AMZN, AAPL and MSFT) will be marked by Friday's employment report, followed by the US elections next week.

October 28, 2024 at 10:33 pm

Rates: Christine, Christine!

The only truly significant event of the past week was the European Central Bank's decision, once again, to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The aim is to halt an economic downturn that is already well underway. The game is far from won.

October 21, 2024 at 10:29 pm

Currencies: Ouch !

THEUR/USD continues its slide. Initially driven by a drastic rise in US long-term interest rates, making the greenback more attractive, this time it's the ECB's turn to fuel the slide.

October 21, 2024 at 10:23 pm

Currencies: No respite for the dollar

The US dollar continues to rally, helped by the resumption of US inflation and the prospect of a limited 25 basis point cut in interest rates at the next Monetary Policy Committee scheduled for early November.

October 14, 2024 at 10:34 pm

Rates: Between inflation and Fed minutes

The current equity market narrative has not suffered either from the US Federal Reserve's minutes or from a (small) upturn in inflation. Only long rates continue to rise, supporting the dollar by extension.

October 14, 2024 at 10:30 pm

Currencies: Dollar benefits from Middle East escalation

The spread of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to Lebanon and Iran, combined with good US unemployment figures, has prompted Forex traders to reposition themselves in favor of the dollar. To the point of significantly downgrading certain technical configurations. A detailed review of the forces at play.

October 07, 2024 at 10:39 pm

Interest rates: The job market is doing well, thank you!

Among the many macroeconomic indicators available to investors, one is especially scrutinized: the US employment market. After two months in a row of mixed results, traders were eagerly awaiting the September figures. And they weren't disappointed!

October 07, 2024 at 10:27 pm

Rates: US curve steepens (and this is traditionally not a good sign)

Smart money vs. dumb money. This is often how professional investors compare fixed-income markets to equity markets. After months of inversion, when short rates were higher than long rates, the curve has now shifted back into positive territory. More on this later.

September 30, 2024 at 10:38 pm

Currencies: Same old

The dynamics in place for several weeks are continuing, with the dollar generally weak against the euro, sterling and commodity currencies. Conversely, the Swiss franc and Japanese yen are likely to breathe a sigh of relief after their recent gains.

September 30, 2024 at 05:55 pm

Currencies: Counter-intuitive

Like the initial reaction to the first US rate cut, anticipating medium-term market reactions is not always easy. Even after years of dissecting stocks and reactions, the field of discoveries is vast enough to never get bored. Today's example is the dollar.

September 23, 2024 at 10:56 pm

Currencies: Everything is linked

This summer, the press was abuzz with the incestuous relationship between the dollar-yen and Nasdaq. The explanation was simple: many (institutional) players financed their purchases on the Magnificent Seven through carry trade positions on the yen. All was well in the best of worlds, until the BoJ intervened and caught them red-handed in the honeypot.

September 16, 2024 at 11:31 pm

Currencies: Dollar limps along, European currencies rally

Over the past week, the dollar has weakened significantly, benefiting not only commodity currencies but also the main European currencies, led by the euro and sterling.

August 19, 2024 at 09:42 pm

Rate: Summer hot flashes

After an exhausting end of July/beginning of August in more ways than one, the past week has sounded like a call for calm. Admittedly, investors have not had many economic indicators to sink their teeth into, and have therefore shown restraint. But for how long?

August 13, 2024 at 10:21 pm

But what's going on?

It had been a promising summer, with falling inflation and the prospect of the US Federal Reserve lowering the cost of borrowing for the first time. But then, lo and behold, recessionary fears reared their ugly heads with a series of disappointing economic statistics, leading to a cascade of more or less fortunate consequences. Thankfully, today looks better. Here's a look back at a week rich in events and thrills.

August 06, 2024 at 10:04 pm

Rate: Light the fire!

Sometimes all it takes is a small spark to light the fuse. Between a better-than-expected CPI, a rather dovish Jerome Powell and the anti-China rhetoric of the White House candidates, the financial markets have had a lot of news to digest, reflected in a particularly rapid sector rotation.

July 22, 2024 at 10:05 pm