At last, a down day for US indices. After six consecutive sessions of gains – each one a record – the S&P 500 closed 0.3% lower last night. In Europe, by contrast, indices ended the session in positive territory, buoyed in particular by strong results from EssilorLuxottica (+6.9%), Philips (+9%) and Barclays (+2.8%), the latter dragging the entire banking sector higher. The outperformance of European banks – long shunned by investors – has now become a lasting trend. The sector benchmark, the Stoxx Europe 600 Banks index, broke its 2007 record late last week. A potent symbol, at least for those of us who were already in finance 18 years ago. Which doesn’t make me feel any younger – and reminds me that, back then, some members of my current team had yet to master the most basic standards of personal hygiene during the subprime crisis.

Still, it’s not all green on European trading screens. Yesterday brought yet another crash for Novo Nordisk. “Yet another” because the Danish group has been stumbling for months. Barely a year ago, Novo Nordisk was Europe’s largest listed company. Since then, the stock has shed two-thirds of its value.

The earnings season is keeping markets lively, with today and tomorrow among the busiest days of the year in that respect. In Europe, L’Oréal, Kering, Capgemini, UBS, HSBC and many others opened their books this morning. The US is no less active: Meta and Microsoft report tonight, followed by Apple and Amazon tomorrow evening. To grasp the scale of the moment, consider one figure making the rounds in financial circles: USD 11.3 trillion – the combined market capitalisation of those four US giants.

Pause for a moment on that figure, and two things emerge. First, financial journalists are a peculiar breed, with only two true passions in life: tallying S&P 500 records and the market capitalisation of companies about to report. More importantly, it underlines the outsized weight of these few stocks in the US indices – and, by extension, in global benchmarks. Any significant market reaction to their results is likely to translate into outsized index moves. Yet in recent weeks the S&P 500 has shown remarkable composure: since 24 June, every session has ended with a move of less than 1%.

That streak is all the more likely to be broken given today’s packed macroeconomic agenda. The morning brings second-quarter GDP readings for the eurozone, followed by the US later in the day. In America, investors will also eye the ADP private-sector employment report – just two days before the official non-farm payrolls data. And to round it all off, the Fed meets. Yes, amid all this, it’s almost possible to forget that the US central bank is currently holding a two-day meeting.

A rate hold is expected this evening, but markets will – as always – hang on every word from Jerome Powell. The key question now is whether rates will be cut in September. On that, investors should expect little more than the Fed Chair’s usual refrain: decisions remain data-dependent, and more time is needed for clarity. Still, whispers suggest growing dissent within the FOMC over the policy path ahead. In the Wall Street Journal, Nick Timiraos – a journalist famed for his inside track on monetary matters – writes that Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman are pushing back and may break ranks. “It would be the first time in three decades that more than one Fed governor dissents at a policy meeting,” notes Timiraos. In short, tonight might not be uneventful – which could delay our after-work pétanque match, where Antoine is intent on defending his dubious title as July champion of the north-east shore of Lake Annecy in the under-60kg category. But for investors, the only real concern is that the probability of a September US rate cut remains at or above its current 66% level, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

Meanwhile, keep an eye on the trade-tariff saga. Yesterday, US and Chinese officials wrapped up a two-day meeting in Stockholm. The statements that followed suggest a likely extension of the 90-day truce agreed in May. But all hangs on Donald Trump’s decision, after he is briefed today by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who led the talks in Sweden. Beyond China, the US is also due – at least in theory – to announce by Friday the tariffs it will impose on each country.

And in the natural disaster file: a tsunami warning has been issued for several regions, including Japan, Hawaii and California, following a powerful earthquake off Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula.

In Asia-Pacific markets, Japan ended near flat after three sessions of declines. Australia, Taiwan and South Korea posted gains, buoyed by hopes of a US–China trade compromise. That optimism has yet to lift Hong Kong, where the Hang Seng was down 0.4% in afternoon trading. European futures point higher, but local openings will hinge on the morning’s heavy slate of corporate results.

Today's Economic Highlights:

On today's agenda: economic confidence in France and the KOF leading indicator in Switzerland; in Germany, the seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP; in the eurozone, economic confidence; in the United States, the ADP employment change, annualized GDP, pending home sales, DOE crude oil inventories, and the FOMC rate decision (lower and upper bound). See the full calendar here.

  • GBP / USD: US$1.33
  • Gold: US$3,325.15
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): US$71.58
  • United States 10 years: 4.33%
  • BITCOIN: US$118,085

In corporate news:

  • L'Oréal announces slower growth but higher margins in H1 (-1.1% on the US OTC after hours).
  • Kering continues to suffer a sharp drop in revenue in Q2 (+0.2% on the US OTC after hours).
  • Capgemini tightens its mid-range targets after lower half-year results.
  • Nexans raises its 2025 outlook range.
  • Worldline changes its CFO and takes a massive €4.1 billion write-down on its assets.
  • Saint-Gobain acquires three companies in the concrete chemicals sector.
  • Sanofi obtains orphan drug status in the United States for its GPRC5D antibody for multiple myeloma.
  • UBS beats expectations with a profit of $2.4 billion in the second quarter.
  • HSBC announces a $3 billion share buyback after a sharp drop in half-year profits.
  • Mercedes-Benz forecasts a profit margin of 4-6% this year.
  • Banco Santander reports Q2 profit in line with expectations.
  • Adidas reports Q2 operating profit above expectations.
  • Recordati reports EBITDA of €496.3 million for the first half of the year.
  • BASF reports lower revenue and sales for the first half of the year.
  • Solvay reports sharp decline in Q2 EBITDA.
  • Siemens Healthineers posts higher net profit and revenue in fiscal Q3.
  • JDE Peet's raises its full-year guidance after better-than-expected half-year results.
  • Grifols posts €176.8 million in net profit in the first half.
  • The CEO of Unicredit says that the bid for Banco BPM had become a hindrance and that the bank hopes that Commerzbank will succeed.
  • EQT is set to acquire Japan's Fujitec for $2.7 billion.
  • Palo Alto Networks is close to finalising a deal worth more than $20 billion for CyberArk, according to the WSJ.
  • Intercontinental Exchange is in talks to buy Enverus for at least $6 billion, according to Bloomberg.
  • Microsoft is in advanced talks to continue accessing OpenAI technology, according to Bloomberg.
  • Toyota will manufacture electric vehicles in the Czech Republic, a first in Europe, according to Nikkei.
  • Tesla signs a $4.3 billion contract with LG Energy Solution for the supply of batteries.
  • Petrobras reports an increase of nearly 8% in oil and gas production in the second quarter compared to the previous year.

See more news from UK listed companies here

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Barclays Plc: Shore Capital maintains its buy recommendation with a price target raised from 410 to GBX 420.
  • Astrazeneca Plc: AlphaValue/Baader Europe maintains its add recommendation and reduces the target price from 120.29 to GBP 119.43.
  • Wizz Air Holdings Plc: Deutsche Bank upgrades to buy from hold with a target price of GBX 1500.
  • Watches Of Switzerland Group Plc: BNP Paribas Exane maintains its neutral recommendation with a price target reduced from GBX 410 to GBX 390.
  • Hsbc Holdings Plc: Morgan Stanley maintains its equalwt recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 846 to GBX 1024.
  • Anglo American Plc: JP Morgan maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from 21.80 to GBP 20.80.
  • Repsol S.a.: Berenberg upgrades to buy from hold with a price target raised from EUR 12 to EUR 16.50.
  • Sig Group Ag: Berenberg maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from 21 to CHF 17.
  • Imerys: Oddo BHF maintains its outperform recommendation and reduces the target price from 45 to EUR 38.
  • Givaudan Sa: Kempen upgrades to neutral from sell with a target price of CHF 3500.
  • Brembo N.v.: Mediobanca maintains its neutral recommendation with a price target reduced from 10.40 to EUR 10.20.
  • Stellantis N.v.: Mediobanca maintains its underperform recommendation with a price target raised from 7.50 to EUR 7.70.
  • Kering: Grupo Santander upgrades to outperform from neutral with a price target raised from EUR 187 to EUR 250.
  • Essilorluxottica: Bernstein maintains its market perform recommendation with a target price reduced from 245 to EUR 240.
  • Galderma Group Ag: RBC Capital maintains its sector perform recommendation with a price target raised from 114 to CHF 128.
  • Sika Ag: RBC Capital maintains its outperform rating and reduces the target price from 270 to CHF 260.