Projected Income Statement: Alstom

Forecast Balance Sheet: Alstom

Fiscal Period: March 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Net Debt 1 2,085 2,135 2,994 522 1,258 1,272 860 582
Change - 2.4% 40.23% -82.57% 141% 1.11% -32.39% -32.33%
Announcement Date 11/5/22 10/5/23 8/5/24 14/5/25 13/5/26 - - -
1EUR in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Alstom

Fiscal Period: March 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
CAPEX 1 428 431 485 482 567 665 713.5 747
Change - 0.7% 12.53% -0.62% 17.63% 17.28% 7.29% 4.7%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 -992 199 -567 490 324 279 25 -44
Change - 120.06% -384.92% 186.42% -33.88% -13.89% -91.04% -276%
Announcement Date 11/5/22 10/5/23 8/5/24 14/5/25 13/5/26 - - -
1EUR in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Alstom

Fiscal Period: March 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 10.62% 10.53% 10.4% 11.09% 10.33% 8.67% 9.5% 9.68%
EBIT Margin (%) 4.96% 5.16% 5.66% 6.37% 6.09% 6.39% 7.04% 7.38%
EBT Margin (%) -1.17% -1.1% -1.44% 1.35% 1.98% 3.26% 4.11% 4.88%
Net margin (%) -3.76% -0.8% -1.75% 0.81% 1.69% 2.61% 3.53% 3.86%
FCF margin (%) -6.41% 1.21% -3.22% 2.65% 1.69% 1.38% 0.12% -0.2%
FCF / Net Income (%) 170.74% -150.76% 183.5% 328.86% 100% 52.73% 3.32% -5.08%

Profitability

        
ROA 1.21% 0.94% 0.14% 1.45% 0.93% 1.75% 2.27% 2.65%
ROE 3.98% 3.26% 0.5% 4.78% 3.07% 6.29% 7.54% 7.97%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 1.27x 1.23x 1.63x 0.25x 0.64x 0.72x 0.42x 0.27x
Debt / Free cash flow -2.1x 10.73x -5.28x 1.07x 3.88x 4.56x 34.38x -13.22x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 2.77% 2.61% 2.75% 2.61% 2.96% 3.28% 3.35% 3.33%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 26.05% 24.8% 26.46% 23.5% 28.62% 37.8% 35.26% 34.41%
CAPEX / FCF (%) -43.15% 216.58% -85.54% 98.37% 175% 238.34% 2,853.86% -1,697.72%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 -1.541 1.604 -0.2132 2.152 1.915 1.96 2.586 3.329
Change - 204.07% -113.29% 1,109.47% -11.04% 2.38% 31.91% 28.77%
Dividend per Share 1 0.25 0.25 - - - 0.2329 0.3639 0.4938
Change - 0% - - - - 56.24% 35.71%
Book Value Per Share 1 23.86 23.96 22.57 22.67 - 24.34 26.09 27.55
Change - 0.39% -5.81% 0.48% - - 7.19% 5.6%
EPS 1 -1.56 -0.35 -0.81 0.31 0.6 1.223 1.585 1.891
Change - 77.56% -131.43% 138.27% 93.55% 103.86% 29.57% 19.32%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 373,392 380,453 384,291 461,511 462,030 462,030 462,030 462,030
Announcement Date 11/5/22 10/5/23 8/5/24 14/5/25 13/5/26 - - -
1EUR
Estimates
2027 *2028 *
P/E 12.8x 9.86x
PBR 0.64x 0.6x
EV / Sales 0.42x 0.38x
Yield 1.49% 2.33%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
AA
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
14
Last Close Price
15.63EUR
Average target price
21.75EUR
Spread / Average Target
+39.16%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise